Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2011 (2011), Article ID 280431, 21 pages
Research Article

Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Medium Scale for Rainfall-Induced Earthflows: Catakli Catchment Area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey)

1General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration, Department of Geological Research, Balgat, 06520 Ankara, Turkey
2Hacettepe University, Department of Geological Engineering, Applied Geology Division, Beytepe, 06800 Ankara, Turkey

Received 23 October 2010; Accepted 8 January 2011

Academic Editor: Ming Li

Copyright © 2011 H. A. Nefeslioglu and C. Gokceoglu. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The aim of the present study is to introduce a probabilistic approach to determine the components of the risk evaluation for rainfall-induced earthflows in medium scale. The Catakli catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey) was selected as the application site of this study. The investigations were performed in four different stages: (i) evaluation of the conditioning factors, (ii) calculation of the probability of spatial occurrence, (iii) calculation of the probability of the temporal occurrence, and (iv) evaluation of the consequent risk. For the purpose, some basic concepts such as “Risk Cube”, “Risk Plane”, and “Risk Vector” were defined. Additionally, in order to assign the vulnerability to the terrain units being studied in medium scale, a new more robust and more objective equation was proposed. As a result, considering the concrete type of roads in the catchment area, the economic risks were estimated as 3 . 6 × 1 0 6 —in case the failures occur on the terrain units including element at risk, and 1 2 . 3 × 1 0 6 —in case the risks arise from surrounding terrain units. The risk assessments performed in medium scale considering the technique proposed in the present study will supply substantial economic contributions to the mitigation planning studies in the region.