Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 1 (1998), Issue 4, Pages 243-253

Predictability problems of global change as seen through natural systems complexity description. 1. General Statements

Vladimir V. Kozoderov,1 Victor A. Sadovnichii,2 Sergey A. Ushakov,2 and Oleg A. Timoshin2

1Institute of Computational Mathematics Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkine Street 8, Moscow 117333, Russia
2M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Vorobiovy Gory, MSU, Moscow 119899, Russia

Received 2 June 1997

Copyright © 1998 Vladimir V. Kozoderov et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The overall problem of global change is considered as the mathematical discrete dynamics discipline that deals with the sets, measures and metrics (SMM) categories in information sub-spaces. The SMM conception enables to unify techniques of data interpretation and analysis and to explain how effectively the giant amounts of information from multispectral satellite radiometers and ground-based instruments are to be processed. It is shown that Prigogine's chaos/order theory and Kolmogorov's probability space are two milestones in understanding the predictability problems of global change. The essence of the problems is maintained to be in filtering out a “useful signal” that would spread from key regions of the globe as compared to their background. Global analysis, interpretation and modelling issues are outlined in the framework of incorrect mathematical problems and of the SMM categories, which contribute to solving the comparability problem for different sets of observations.